It has hardly been a year and the world is already disregarding the most crucial pledge of the time.

In January this year, the five most powerful nations of the world – the US, Russia, China, the UK, and France – issued a joint statement that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”^[1]. However, the observance of this indispensable obligation seems to be at risk.

Weeks ago, Russia said that it would use its nuclear weapons if its territorial integrity was threatened^[2]. In response, US President Joe Biden said that it was highly unlikely that such a step would not end in Armageddon^[3]. However, experts had been divided on whether Russia was serious about employing its nuclear weapons or not. The developments since then had shown that the threats were anything but a bluff.

On 21 September, Putin ordered Russia’s first mobilization since World War Two^[4]. On 30 September, he announced the annexation of four Ukrainian provinces claiming those territories as Russian and also vowing to protect them using any means^[5]. On 8 October, a blast hit and partially damaged the Crimean Bridge, which is a key automotive and rail supply line from Russia into Crimea^[6]. Only two days later, Russia retaliated by launching a wave of missiles across Ukraine including the capital Kyiv that reportedly caused the death and injury of many civilians apart from power and water shortages^[7].

Although the possibility of an imminent nuclear attack is still denied by many nations, and we pray that to be the case, their actions give a clear impression that they are not taking the situation lightly. For instance, Joe Biden, in an interview aired on 11 October, said that he did not think Putin will use nuclear weapons^[8]. But at the same time, the US Center for Disease Control and Preservation had already published an advisory for its citizens on how to stay safe in the event of a nuclear explosion. In case of a radiation emergency, the CDC guidelines list primarily asks its citizens to get inside a building and decontaminate themselves and take shelter for a period. Similarly, they advised against the use of conditioner as it would cause radioactive material to stick to hair^[9]. Russia is also said to be preparing its citizens for a nuclear explosion^[10].

Consequently, people are also practically preparing for a worst-case scenario. Recently, the web traffic on The Prepared – a website offering guidelines on emergency preparedness – is reported to have increased multi-fold. John Ramey, the founder of the website says that their top on-site search terms have been ‘nuclear’, ‘iodine’, ‘emp’, and ‘radiation sickness’ – terms that are normally nowhere near the top.^[11]

Dr Chris Ellis, an expert on disaster preparedness says that the percentage of ‘resilient citizens’ rose from 3.8% to 5.8% between 2017 and 2020. Resilient citizens are those Americans who can survive for 31 days or more in a state of self-sufficiency. Similarly, the number of ‘ultra high resilient citizens’, who can survive 97 days or more on their own, has jumped from 1.1% to 2.6% over the same period.^[12]

Moreover, there is a sudden rise in the purchase of bunkers by well-off people to prepare for a nuclear blast. Gary Lynch, the CEO of Rising S Company says that they sold more than 3000 bunkers in February while they normally sell less than a hundred in a month.^[13]

But the problem is that the bunkers usually cost tens of thousands or even millions of dollars, which can only be afforded by affluent people. Preparing for a nuclear explosion, in this sense, would be an impossible task for the less fortunate.

In any case, it seems that the masses, more so than the leaders, have come to their senses and are remembering the lessons of the past. The growing uncertainty seems to be bringing the horrific memories of past atomic disasters back to their minds afresh.

To date, the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki remain the only instances of nuclear weapons ever used by man in any armed conflict. The results of those attacks are more than enough to shake us to the core. Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum commemorates the first explosion and conveys the terrifying consequences of the event.

Even more terrifying is the fact that those bombs were far less destructive when compared to the ones possessed by many nations of the world today. For instance, the weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki had an estimated explosive yield of 15 and 21 kilotons of TNT respectively^[14] while modern nuclear weapons have blast yields of 100 kilotons of TNT or even more^[15]. According to Nukemap – an interactive site that enables users to model the explosion of nuclear weapons – a 100-kiloton nuclear weapon dropped on New York City could cause over 583,000 deaths^[16].

Additionally, a nuclear explosion can also cause serious disruption to Earth’s climate and disturb terrestrial and aquatic food production. A very recent study hence estimated that a nuclear war between the US and Russia could cause more than 5 billion fatalities – a figure that amounts to around 63% of the world’s population.^[17]

What is even more disturbing is that even these frightening figures fail to serve as an eye-opener for man, who is blinded by his material desires. The fact is that the world did not reach this point as an overnight phenomenon. For almost two decades, the Worldwide Head of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community warned the world that it was headed towards destruction. He had repeatedly asked world leaders to come to their senses and act with justice keeping aside their vested interests. He addressed the European Parliament, the House of Commons UK, the Capitol Hill US among various other parliaments and headquarters.

In June 2013, addressing the British Parliament, His Holiness said:

Certainly, the way the world is heading there is a real risk of a nuclear war breaking out. To prevent such a horrific outcome, we should adopt justice, integrity and honesty and join together to suppress and stop those groups who wish to spread hatred and who wish to destroy the peace of the world.^[18]

In 2012, addressing the European Parliament in Brussels, His Holiness said:

It is the duty of the European countries, who suffered great losses during the Second World War, to learn from their past and save the world from destruction. To do this, they must fulfil the requirements of justice and be willing to accept their responsibilities. Islam strongly emphasises the need to always act in a fair and just manner. It teaches that no party should be given preferential treatment, or favoured unduly. It should be that a wrongdoer knows that if he tries to act unjustly towards any country, no matter its size or status, he will not be allowed to do so by the international community.^[19]

His Holiness had also written letters to world leaders urging them to act justly and resolve conflicts through dialogue and diplomacy instead of resorting to fighting. In March 2012, he wrote a letter to then-US President Barack Obama, in which he said:

If we now observe the current circumstances of the world, we find that the foundation for another world war has already been laid. As so many countries, both large and small, have nuclear weapons, grudges and hostilities are increasing between nations. In such a predicament, the Third World War looms almost certainly before us. Such a war would surely involve atomic warfare; and therefore, we are witnessing the world head towards a terrifying destruction. If a path of equity and justice had been followed after the Second World War, we would not be witnessing the current state of the world today whereby it has become engulfed in the flames of war once again.^[20]

But every time, his words were ignored and were not given due regard. Indeed, this was a very costly mistake to commit considering the warning of the Holy Prophet^sa which sounds all the more relevant in this age. The Holy Prophet^sa says:

Beware of the believer’s intuition for he sees with God’s light.^[21]

On 5 March 2022, during his address at the annual symposium of the International Association of Ahmadi Architects and Engineers (IAAAE), His Holiness, for the first time, presented a blueprint for redevelopment projects should a nuclear war happen^[22]. In light of the aforementioned narration of the Holy Prophet^sa, I personally see this as a serious warning. It clearly indicates that the destruction has reached our doorstep.